Reports of Firefox's demise are greatly exaggerated

With Chrome 10, IE 9, and Firefox 4 available, all hands are on the table. In spite of what you may have read, Firefox isn't folding

Firefox 4 is out and, by some accounts, the vultures are already circling: IE is here to stay; Chrome's on the rise; and Firefox has no place to go but down -- or so the conventional wisdom goes.

I disagree. Industry observers are overlooking one key factor that will keep Firefox going strong for years to come. Permit me to explain.

But first, if you don't yet have hands-on experience with all three browsers, take a quick visual tour:

Each of the browsers has a whiz-bang feature or two that sets it apart from the rest. Firefox has App Tabs and Tab Groups, and it'll sync bookmarks, history, and open tabs in the cloud. IE9 makes it one-click easy to block ActiveX controls. (Notably, IE is the only browser that needs the ability to block ActiveX controls.) Chrome has independent processes for each tab, native Flash support, and a hard-earned reputation for bulletproof security.

Several features appear in two of the browsers, mutatis mutandis, with the third browser not yet in the picture -- perhaps by intent. IE9 and Chrome have the ability to pin tabs on the Windows 7 taskbar. IE9 and Chrome have done away with the separate search box, although Firefox searches on terms typed into the address box. Go figure. Firefox and Chrome can be skinned to change their appearance. Firefox and Chrome also have much larger collections of add-ons.

All three browsers share certain key characteristics and features. They're all very fast compared to earlier versions, although the speed of your Internet connection means much more than any SunSpider benchmark. They all eliminate the window title bar, opening up more real estate for the Web page. They all have a "private" mode, so the browser develops amnesia when so instructed. They all (finally) have a download manager worthy of the term. They all support HTML5, to a greater or lesser extent, with IE9 carrying the torch for H.264 video format, Firefox and Google going with WebM, and Google back-ending IE9 with a WebM plug-in. All of them have compatibility problems, dealing with sites designed for earlier versions of Internet Explorer.

Experts debate the pros and cons of each. Frankly, for 90 percent of the people who use the Web there won't be much difference among the three. I use -- and generally recommend -- Chrome because, historically, it's been hard to crack. But that reputation could dissolve in the blink of an eye.

Response to the new browsers defy imagination. More than 6 million copies of Firefox 4 were downloaded in the first 24 hours. IE9 hit 2.3 million the first day. Servers all over the world are on their knees as I write this, trying to keep up with the Firefox onslaught.

All of this is playing out against a backdrop of rapidly changing market share. In the past two years, according to NetMarketShare, IE has gone from 68 percent of the market to 57 percent, Firefox declined from 23 percent to 22 percent, and Google gobbled up IE's slack, going from 2 percent to 11 percent.

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