10 things you needn't worry about in 2013

Tired of dreary disaster scenarios? Then here's a grab bag of topics you shouldn't bother fretting over

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5. Typesafe fading away: I think 2013 is probably the breakout year for Typesafe, a platform for creating highly scalable Java and Scala applications. The Play framework for developing Web applications seems to be gaining a lot of mindshare. While Scala is still used by a tiny slice of developers, it has some die-hard fans and its share is growing. With another round of funding, Typesafe is building out its capabilities, and one of the best evangelists I know just joined the company to preach the faith.

6. A shortage of PaaS vendors: I had no idea how many there were. Since I wrote "Which freaking PaaS should I use?," I've been swarmed with marketing people wanting to "brief" me (which apparently means having someone who can't answer my technical questions read a Web page aloud over the phone). Many of these PaaS vendors aren't going to make it; the ones that have the resources to build their own cloud probably will, while most of the ones built on top of Amazon Web Services probably won't. Valuation and acquisition of the smaller players will be based on service and build compelling features, absolutely flawless tools, and an easy on-ramp for legacy applications.

Next year, I think we'll start to see some actual releases from the larger vendors. And at least a couple of the smaller guys will fold.

7. Microsoft's Surface tablet: Microsoft's Surface tablet ships on October 26. It takes time to build, rebuild, or attract a developer community. It also takes a lower price to enter an established market. I'm not counting Microsoft out yet, but if you ignore the Surface next year, you can still safely stay in the game with tablet development. Maybe Microsoft will figure it out by 2014, but the Surface isn't on my Hanukkah list for this year.

8. Larry Ellison: Maybe Larry shouldn't invest in any more boats or just stick to yachts, but he'll be OK otherwise, don't you worry. Yes, in the long term, NoSQL and big data will mean you won't need an RDBMS for the vast majority of database applications. Meanwhile, so much has been built on top of Oracle, and the company manages to find so many creative ways to charge maintenance fees, the cost of switching from Oracle is simply too high. With an entrenched product and a big, aggressive sales force, Larry will get by.

9. Another 2009: Although the outlook from the major 24-hour news networks is grim, the outlook from the major 24-hour news networks is always grim. They sell fear for a living. On the whole, the tech industry is doing well. Even if we have to keep our data with our women, in binders, I think there will be even more of it next year. Someone has to track the binders, right?

10. Windows Server 2012: I don't expect to see a significant corporate move to Windows Server 2012 until 2014 at the earliest. Many large companies just recently upgraded to Windows Server 2008.

This article, "10 things you needn't worry about in 2013," was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Read more of Andrew C. Oliver's Strategic Developer blog, and keep up on the latest developments in application development at InfoWorld.com For the latest business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.

Copyright © 2012 IDG Communications, Inc.

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