Boon or bust?

Occasionally, I hear from readers who fear that the rise of open-source software will cause the decline of the programming profession in the United States. The logic goes something like this: The availability of open source in developing countries will increase the training of programmers in those countries. These new programmers, dwelling in nations with a much lower cost of living, will sell their services to American companies for a fraction of the cost of an American programmer.

The net result will be a migration of U.S. programming jobs to developing countries, while American programmers are forced to take jobs as toll booth operators and retail sales people. In this way, these readers contend, open source will destroy the American programming industry.

Unfortunately, this analysis is flawed. It is true that many software tasks are being farmed out to less expensive foreign programmers, but it is false to say that open source is responsible for this migration.

The growth of programming skills in developing countries is inevitable. Although the availability of open-source software may accelerate the learning process of programmers in some developing nations, the process was well under way long before open source was making headlines.

I remember working on a project a decade ago for the now-defunct Digital Equipment Corporation, in which about half the project team consisted of programmers from India. Even then, there was a growing movement in large U.S. computer companies to use less expensive labor from outside the United States.

The presence of millions of older PCs in the world with near-zero market value means that some of these machines will eventually work their way into the hands of foreign computer students with limited budgets. The availability of open-source software makes many of those machines useful to these students — or at least "legal."  Many foreign students had resigned themselves to learn on old and/or illegal copies of commercial software, since they could not afford the high price of current software.

The rising number of these students overseas creates the supply that will meet the demand of some American businesses to lower software development costs. Open-source technology did not cause this situation, although it does allow cash-poor students to use legal software instead of resorting to illegal copies of commercial software.

So what are American programmers to do? Programmers are stuck in a situation where they will need to innovate and specialize. If your skills are mundane and you simply code to specification, you might find yourself working that toll booth. If you can design creatively, create a truly new solution, or have depth of experience in a vertical market, then you may have a future in the industry.

This is one area where open source can help. While open source can be a useful tool for the computer student, it can be a greater boon for the experienced programmer. By participating in innovative or specialized projects, a programmer can build a reputation that enhances his or her worth in the marketplace. Whereas that might not be the path to great riches, it might help you secure a comfortable position.