Analysts: PC market to slow down in 2006

Shipments of PCs worldwide will grow at a slower pace in 2006 than in 2005, partly because the replacement cycle for desktop PCs has hit a peak, market researcher Gartner Inc. said Thursday.

PC shipments in 2006 are expected to reach 234.5 million units, up 10.7 percent compared with 2005. However, PC shipments grew 15.5 percent in 2005, compared with 2004.

Although shipments of mobile PCs are expected to grow strongly in 2006, the deceleration in desktop PC replacements will drag down the overall growth rate, according to Gartner.

Desktop PC shipments are projected to grow just 1.9 percent this year overall, declining 8.6 percent in mature markets while increasing 19.5 percent in emerging markets, according to Gartner. Mature markets include the U.S. and Western Europe. Mobile PC shipments are expected to grow 31.4 percent worldwide this year.

Gartner also warned that worldwide PC shipment growth could fall below the current forecast of 10.7 percent if Microsoft Corp. doesn't set a precise release date for its new Vista operating system and if end users shy away from adopting newly introduced Intel Corp. technologies.

Meanwhile, IDC separately has similar expectations. IDC expects worldwide PC shipments to grow 10.5 percent this year over 2005, helped in large part by strong sales in Asia-Pacific with 13.2 percent growth in shipments and in emerging markets, such as Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, with 18.5 percent growth, analyst David Daoud said.

Mature markets will experience more moderate growth, with Western Europe seeing a 9.7 percent increase in shipments, the U.S. a 6.8 percent increase, and Japan remaining essentially flat this year compared with last year.

In 2005, worldwide PC shipments grew 15.9 percent over 2004, Daoud said. This year the growth will slow down in part because of a desktop PC saturation in mature markets, he said. Growth in 2007 isn't expected to fall below 2006 levels, as the positive effects of Vista help the market, he said.