In other words, we'll see a reduction in the number of projects where stakeholders spec out requirements for enterprise developers, who labor long and hard on vertical applications highly specific to the business. An increasing number of those projects will be supplanted by an abundance of narrowly targeted, cloud-based, collaborative, mobile-friendly apps that will effectively cut IT out of the loop.
I find this a very interesting theory. One supporting data point is Gartner's rather wild prediction that by 2017 CMOs will spend more on IT than CIOs. No doubt that depends on how you count the spending, yet many have observed that marketing is fast becoming one of the largest business technology growth areas and execs are indeed circumventing the IT department and going directly to providers to get what they want.
What does all this mean for today's IT professional? For one thing, although there's a shift to the cloud, no one is saying that on-premises enterprise IT is going away. There's an abundance of assets and workloads that no company would cede to an outside service provider. But hoping you won't be last to grab a chair when the music stops is not a career strategy.
IT career counselors have said the same thing for years: If you want to get ahead in IT, get to know the business you're in almost as well as you know the technology. If Gens' vision of verticalization comes true, you can always take those skills with you and get a job with an industry PaaS provider.
This article, "How IT will be blown to bits," originally appeared at InfoWorld.com. Read more of Eric Knorr's Modernizing IT blog. And for the latest business technology news, follow InfoWorld on Twitter.