Preventing self-fulfilling prophesies

Provide solutions, not just predictions.

Dear Bob ...

Observation and a question.

Observation: It's interesting that the same dunderheads that caused (at least in part) the problems we're experiencing, are supposed to lead us out of them. They didn't have a clue before. Did they get some clues on sale at K-Mart this week?

Question: How do you avoid the self-fulfilling prophecy problem?

- Curious observer

Dear Curious ...

Regarding your observation, I couldn't agree more. Why do these people continue to have any influence at all? Clearly, they weren't successful at what they were doing. I've offered this before: I'll wreck anyone's company for half the cost of the CEO they have now.

Regarding your question: The short answer is to understand the dynamics of the situation. True self-fulfilling prophesies are avoided by changing the prophesy: If economics really was Tinkerbelle in disguise, we'd all become wealthy by clapping as hard as we can instead of being worried.

Many situations that look like self-fulfilling prophesy are, in fact, mere prophesies -- someone understands the situation and warns about it.

The truly tough challenges are the situations where, when a few perceptive people see an impending problem and get out of the way, it rescues them but leaves other people in the lurch, but if they warn everyone then they cause the system to destabilize even more.

The best answer I have here is to turn self-fulfilling prophesy into self-preventing prophesy -- to include a path away from the problem.

Self-preventing prophesy is the root cause of the old, tired statement that economists have predicted nine of the past five recessions. This wasn't because they were stupid. It's because their predictions led to courses of action that prevented four recessions.

- Bob