Wall Street beat: Software looking good

Despite financial and accounting problems at Dell Inc., Novell Inc. and Yahoo Inc., underlying faith in the software sector and a solid first-day performance on Riverbed Technology Inc.'s initial public offering indicate that the end of the year may yet reward IT investors.

The early part of the third quarter proved worrisome for technology investors, as high hopes in the beginning of the year gave way to softer than expected sales and a price war for PC makers. But as the fourth quarter approaches, several brokerages have raised their forecasts for the tech sector as a whole.

The lower cost of hardware is expected to spark a spending spree by both consumers and corporate buyers by the end of the year.

Analysts also see pent-up demand for software. Signs of hope started appearing in August, when for example Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. released a survey showing that 60 percent of chief information officers polled anticipated increasing software spending in the second half of the year.

In addition, Lehman Brothers Inc. and Credit Suisse First Boston have recently recommended that investors take a closer look and invest in technology stocks, reasoning that declines earlier in the year have made some companies a bargain.

Stoked by recommendations, the Nasdaq exchange started taking off in August after sinking to a yearly low in July. Good news continued this week, as the debut of Riverbed, a maker of WAN (wide area network) optimization technology, shone on the Nasdaq. Riverbed's (RVBD) initial public offering of 8.7 million shares priced at US$9.75 a share, above the target of $7 to $8.50 a share, and closed at $15.30 Thursday, showing confidence in the network optimization trend.

On Tuesday Oracle Corp. reported better-than-expected earnings. Excluding one-time charges for acquisitions, Oracle's earnings per share grew 24 percent to $0.18, better than the $0.16 consensus forecast of analysts polled by Thomson Financial. Several analysts said that Oracle's results, after a similar strong report from Adobe Systems Inc. last week, bode well for the upcoming quarter.

Specifically, Oracle's strong sales for new applications and services indicate that businesses are in the mood to buy. Citigroup upgraded Oracle to "buy" from "hold," and UBS Warburg and Deutsche Bank raised their price targets.

Some bad news midweek put at least a temporary halt to the Nasdaq rise. Yahoo (YHOO) shares plunged $3.25, to close at $25.75 Tuesday after it warned that slowing growth from automotive and financial services advertisers would affect revenue. The warning pushed down sales of other Internet companies as well. News that both Dell and Novell face delisting from the Nasdaq also helped depress the market Thursday. Due to accounting probes, both companies delayed financial reports, which triggered delisting notices.

Hewlett-Packard Co. shares, which up until this week seemed impervious to the company's growing spy scandal, finally took a hit Thursday after revelations that Chief Executive Office Mark Hurd may have known about possible illegal investigative techniques as they were being planned. HP shares (HPQ) closed at $34.87, down by $1.91 Thursday.

On balance, the bad news seems company-specific, while the solid software results and the excitement sparked by Riverbed appears to speak more to underlying trends. For the hoped-for fourth quarter tech rally to really happen though, investors need to see some strong quarterly reports next month.