Meet me back here when it’s over

I talked with people working for about a dozen major vendors in all. The voices I trust have some characteristics in common. They believe that most of the vendor and technology choices available today will vanish. They are simultaneously terrified and thrilled by the future, energized by the coming epochal shift in a way that they’ve never experienced, even during careers that span decades. They see new opportunities for amazing technology, cutting-edge science that’s sat on the shelf for years waiting for the market to catch up. Most of all, the visionaries that matter all see business back in the driver’s seat. Technologies, products, and attitudes that don’t efficiently target modern business requirements will be swept away.

I had hoped to return to Texas with a set of strategic vendor contacts who would talk openly with me, with readers, and with each other about the challenges of consolidation. That was naive; the industry isn’t ready for that. Management snaps back to fundamentals -- facts and statistics and proven strategies -- at times of crisis, and that is breeding less cooperation and more rhetoric spun out to the media. Before we get to the future, vendors will pull inward. They’ll spin familiar, easily debunked stories about standards and cross-vendor interoperability while they reduce the world to black and white, friends and enemies, the right way and the doomed way.

Meanwhile, some of the best minds in Silicon Valley are asking me over drinks if I think they’re heading the wrong way. It’s a very emotional time for people who got into technology to solve problems. These people love their jobs because of the relationships they’ve built with IT customers and with other technologists. If they’re lucky, they can transfer their work to the rubric of research and soldier on, bypassing the disconnections and fortifications their employers have mandated. Or perhaps they work for a vendor that is determined to do what it believes is right, one that will keep supporting great ideas even if those ideas run contrary to advice from marketing.

It will take a couple of weeks for me to process everything I’ve taken in over the past three months. I already feel hopeful, excited, and motivated about consolidation. It will bring technology back into sync with business reality. I worry about my future, as do several of the visionaries and strategists who spoke openly with me. Those who saw this coming long before I did have had more time to accept that their once-sure life plans will be delayed or derailed. You’d be surprised how many are happy about a forced change of scenery and perspective.

I don’t worry about IT. Consolidation is going to shake technology back to its sole reason for existing: the service of those who use it. That idea will be popular again, and when it is, those devalued and displaced from strategic roles will return from their sabbaticals and their consulting practices to define the next era of computing. When that day comes, I’m throwing a party for all of the great thinkers and tireless doers who waited patiently for IT to be set right. Meet me at the usual place, everyone, and I’m buying.