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July 07, 2009

Google’s Chrome OS: An ice cube's chance in Hell of succeeding

Why the deck is stacked against Google's efforts to dislodge Microsoft Windows with Chrome OS

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The cards are on the table. The cat is out of the bag. The twist ending has, well, twisted. Google is finally getting into the PC operating system market ... for real. And not just with some Android port on steroids. Chrome OS will be something new, a platform that stands apart from, and in some cases competes with, the company's nascent mobile device OS.

My take? It has an ice cube's chance in Hell of succeeding.

[ InfoWorld's Neil McAllister sees Chrome OS as the beginning of the true cloud era, not as a traditional desktop OS rival. | InfoWorld's Robert X. Cringely wonders if Chrome OS will be a geeks-only thing. ]

Seriously, creating a brand-new PC operating system is no small task. Even if Google bases Chrome OS on some existing technology -- like the ever-adaptable Linux kernel -- it still needs to address several very real hurdles before it can deliver anything even remotely competitive to Microsoft's ubiquitous Windows.

For example, if the Chrome browser is truly the new OS' only front end, then what about those applications and utilities that have no AJAX-based equivalents? I'm talking about the myriad legacy programs that expect to run atop a traditional OS, with a real windowing environment, file system, and process management/IPC mechanisms. Although the world has come a long way on the road to full "Webification," there are still many miles to go before we get to a point where IT organizations can rip and replace their Windows-based fat client environments in favor of JavaScript, XML, and HTML 5.

Then there is the issue of peripheral plumbing. People want their PCs and devices to work together seamlessly. And that requires a vast ecosystem of third-party device drivers, as well as their supporting development partners. Getting the larger software and hardware developer communities to support your platform is a tall order -- just ask Microsoft, a company that has spent the better part of three decades laying precisely such a hardware foundation so that Windows "just runs" on virtually any combination of PC hardware.

Basing Chrome OS on the Linux kernel woul help to mitigate this last hurdle a bit. However, as the netbook remix fiasco has shown, customers have little tolerance for half-baked device support, even in a task-oriented OS running on a single function device. Linux is still years behind Windows in the seamless hardware compatibility department, so Google has some work ahead if it hopes to slap lipstick on the FOSS pig and call it user-friendly.

Of course, Google has likely thought through these issues already. The folks from Mountain View probably have some superduper master plan to deal with the seemingly insurmountable hurdles that lay before them. It's just that, right now, I can't figure out what that plan is. Barring a heavy dose of pixie dust, you simply can't get there from here.

So I say, "Good luck, Google! You'll need it!"

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18 of 18 comments
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I.Wannabe.Randall.Kennedy 8-Jul-09 9:00am
Wow! I'm speechless........... I actually agree with Randall Kennedy for once. Maybe there is hope for InfoWorld.com after all.
splendidcrm 8-Jul-09 9:34am

At SplendidCRM, we are die-hard Microsoft supporters, but we would be interested in a Google OS so long as Miguel de Icaza and his Mono team can enable us to run our .NET application on the new OS. As application developers, we are less enthusiastic about learning a new OS or a new API, but we would be very open to running our application on a new, fast, simple and secure platform.

jazzbythebay 8-Jul-09 9:35am
Randall, when you're not busy bashing Microsoft (which occasionally does deserve the bashing, but is mostly baseless, ill-deserved, or inappropriate), you do make sense and make folks want to read what you write. jazz
nic42 8-Jul-09 10:03am
I am both a Linux enthusiast and someone who uses Windows. Windows does not support, out of the box, the variety of hardware Linux supports. The hardware foundation of Windows is due to its ubiquity. Hardware vendors write more drivers for their hardware for Windows. When XP was released there were problems with driver availability, as when Vista was released. A Google OS needs to work with hardware vendors to ensure hardware compatiblity which remains to be seen.
pllamonica 8-Jul-09 10:28am
I have to say I agree with Randall here but I wonder if we are stuck thinking inside the box. We are approaching this from the ‘how is my old pc and stuff going to be able to use this new OS’. I didn’t see anywhere where they said it would. With mobile devices containing more computing power than last years PC, well almost, and as more and more of them hit the markets an entire new line of devices we have never dreamed about will be on store shelves by 2011. Remember MS-DOS did little to enhance the mainframe and look where Windows, MAC and Linux are now.
BigRonG 8-Jul-09 11:08am
Pila I think you are right! Google is not aiming at the legacy market. They want the light web / social traffic that is so much of the web today. Could they live with 20% of today? (Hey better than zero) But what about the increasing push towards 'instant' computing? If they capture 80% of THAT market - well we will all say they are genius and be slapping ourselves on the forehead.
rjacksix 8-Jul-09 11:17am
You're kidding right? You're complete analysis of the situation is that it has a snowball's chance in hell? Then you come up with a bunch of lame excuses about why a dying status quo will dominate. Gee, forget the renaissance, let's all live in the frigging dark ages. And oh, by the way, don't take into account that Android has been relatively successful, or that maybe just maybe a company who took an idea that NOBODY thought would work and turned it into a profitable, dominant, healthy company with a market cap of God Himself knows what, might have a clue as to what they were doing. I especially like your admitted cluelessness as to the base of the foundation of the OS (as many other TECHNICAL newsletters and blogs have accurately reported that it will be Linux based). No....I'm gonna take your word for it.... (How does someone get paid for writing this kind of tripe?)
EVVJSK 8-Jul-09 11:49am
2 replies
To succeed Chrome OS will need to do a few things: 1) Run on X86 (even Apply eventually figured that one out, but possibly too late). Check (Plus ARM). Check Check. 2)Have wide application support. If the keep the Linux thinking and extend it, they should have Java, MONO(.NET), Silverlight (maybe no activeX, but that needs to die anyway). If they do those, they will have applications developed for Windows and Other platforms which will also run on Chrome OS. We will have to see if they are smart enough. 3)Make the interface/configuration changes, etc... Intuitive and easy to manage (i.e. automate). Linux is still learning this, but they need to build a scripting technology into the OS (i.e. Powershell that Microsoft has recently embraced). 4)Include OS and Application updates as part of an industry standard(they should embrace one of the Linux Package managers or work with a Linux Distro to create a new Standard). Having to rebuild packages for different distro is killing Linux adoption. While those things aren't trivial they can be done, and people are looking for a viable alternative to Windows, Apple, and Linux. My opinion... much better than a IceCube's Chance in He!!
JamesMartin 9-Jul-09 5:54pm
Mono (.net) or Silverlight? Microsoft Patent time bombs. They won't sue? Look at Tom Tom. And now we have people checking with their lawyers before writing code that will interface with a Fat file system. If they are smart, they will steer clear of mono and sliverlight. Can't you just see MS Execs rubbing their hands in anticipation of going after Google's deep pockets?
cmaurand 10-Jul-09 9:15am
Microsoft Powershell came about because Linux already has very powerful scripting in its shells (bash, tcsh, zsh, etc.), plus it has perl, php, java, python, etc. etc. etc. Microsoft is behind the curve on shell scripting. I would imagine that the Google OS will be debian distro of some flavor.
MIKED007 8-Jul-09 12:30pm
Does this guy get paid to write such crap!!!???? Windows has problems out the yeng/yang !! ,take my computer for example i downloaded Windows IE 8 and the damn thing will not get past the desktop or download anything ! I am now using Google for everything and yes i use Google Chrome and Desktop for everything, I have not had a problem yet! So I say go Google and kick MicroSuck's tail!!!!!!!
zman58 9-Jul-09 11:15am
1 reply
A well designed and well marketed alternative from a big brand name could easily "dislodge" the status quo. GNU/Linux can easily provide much of the enabling technology behind it. Look at how far it has gone so far from a very simple beginning of one post on the Internet. Google already makes Linux fly and creates wealth with it far beyond your imagination. You want a simple user interface with Linux power behind it--providing power and capabilities beyond your imagination? Just visit http://www.google.com/ and behold what you can do. If that is not enough, try http://maps.google.com/ or http://www.amazon.com/ ...All delivered by friendly Linux and a little sweat equity. Look beyond the box you have drawn around yourself and are trying to draw others into.
Randall C. Kennedy 9-Jul-09 12:15pm
And there you have it: Your moment of Zen, courtesy of zman58.
rcprimak 9-Jul-09 2:22pm

Randall, you have done a very good job of covering some technical reasons not to trust Google to make a usable operating system.

I would like to add a few things, but I don't like to duplicate my comments from other Infoworld blog areas. So, interested readers might want to look at what I said in my comment under Robert X. Cringeley's blog titled "The Google OS: Are we saved at last?".

There, I raised questions about the proposed timing of the introduction of Google OS, nearly a year after the proposed introduction of Windows 7 into the netbook market. Bad news for Google.

Also, I raised questions about why anyone would want all of their data trapped in the Cloud without local backups.

And as for the promise of getting to your e-mail in just seconds? Win-7 already makes that claim on computers equipped with their Quick-Start startup mode.

Has Google ever acknowledged let alone fixed all the security and privacy flaws in their browser? And does anyone expect that the Google OS will be any more secure and private? If so, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you!

Cloud Computing may have tremendous advantages, but it also has tremendous hurdles to overcome. I agree with you, Randall, when you assess Google OS as having the chance of an Ice Cube in Hell of making the slightest dent into MS Windows' territory on the desktop, except for some netbooks and other Internet Appliances which are not full-fledged computers anyway.

JamesMartin 9-Jul-09 5:49pm
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/06/03/crunchpad-the-launch-prototype/ This seems like a perfect fit to me. Now, if you question the usefulness of a browser only system, take a look at Mozilla's concept: http://adaptivepath.com/aurora/ Before you sneer in contempt, consider how the gui interface was first accepted. There are some developments coming down the pike where some really disrupting things will happen. Microsoft is trying to get in on the game with their table computer. The trouble is, mobile is where it is at, and that table is portable, only if you use the Navy definition. (Can be transported on a destroyer.)
jragosta 10-Jul-09 7:43am
1 reply
You've managed to miss the point of ChromeOS entirely. It is not, and was never meant to be, a threat to Windows. Rather, it's something new. Picture your grandmother. All of her kids are scattered and no one writes letters or calls any more, so she can't stay in touch. Sure, she gets a Christmas card every year with the dutiful family portraits, but that's it. If this works the way I think it will work, the kids will go down to Best Buy and buy her an appliance rather than what we consider to be a computer. It's not designed to install software, so maybe it doesn't even have a CD drive (don't know about that one - since that's one way to share pictures, etc). I just got my daughter a Toshiba laptop with 2.16 GHz Core 2 Duo, 2 GB, 15.6" screen, etc for $379. Take away the Windows tax and maybe downgrade the hardware slightly (drop the DVD burner, 4 GB of flash instead of hard disk and RAM, and use integrated graphics) and you're looking at a 15" laptop with real processor (forget Atom junk) for under $300. Grandma plugs it in. There's no UI to deal with. No worries about installing software. No driver messes. No Registry. Nothing but a web browser. Maybe even preconfigured with a home page - when you start it for the first time, it asks your name, etc, and when you start it, there's a home page with half a dozen buttons - check email, go to Youtube, etc. Or how about a second scenario. Company X is absolutely paranoid about security for their data and do not want data on remote computers. Instead of trying to lock down a Windows computer and fighting with users, they give them one of these - which allows them to do email with the home office, access all the docs they need in the home office via https, but if it gets lost, it's no big deal because there's nothing stored on it. It will never replace Windows, but that's not what it's for. How about thinking outside the box a bit.
rcprimak 13-Jul-09 11:14pm
@jragosta --

Like the old Web-TV for Grandma, eh? Well, Grandmas are now more tech literate than you seem to think. Even they need a real OS on the desktop, not just a Web Appliance.

cmaurand 10-Jul-09 9:20am
Randall, Linux already has pretty good hardware support and lots of drivers. I don't know of much that's not supported. Linux lacks the polish of a really nice desktop such as MAC or Windows. Linux just needs a better interface and Chrome might just do that. More power to them. I still want control of my data and I don't want it in "the cloud."

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