Don't rule out the Steve factor
So far, all this analysis overlooks one vital factor: Steve Jobs. Although Apple's co-founder no longer dwells among the living, his famous "reality-distortion field" radiates from the grave.
Jobs never liked sharing profits with anyone, which is why Apple's platforms are walled gardens. Apple's "curated" model of app-store merchandising exerts almost total control over software distribution while keeping a large slice of the revenue. That model started with iTunes, surged with the iPhone and iPad, and is gradually encompassing the Mac. Now, instead of buying readily available off-the-shelf chips, Apple is designing its own ARM CPU cores and iOS application processors -- difficult projects that cost the company about $500 million for acquisitions, licenses, and engineering just to get the first chip out the door.
In other words, sometimes Apple goes to great lengths to assert control over its platforms and customize its products, never mind the expense. Thus far, the strategy has paid off, making Apple one of the world's largest companies by market capitalization and amassing it $121 billion in surplus cash.
Today, Apple can afford to take risks and go its own way. It would have been characteristic for Jobs to declare his independence from Intel by decreeing that all future Apple products must someday use Apple-designed processors based on Apple's own ARM CPU cores. Even if it wasn't an explicit command, his inheritors may be thinking along the same lines, due to their longtime exposure to his reality-distortion field. Having fathered a few successful application processors, they may now believe they can beat Intel at its own game.
Therefore, you can't rule out that Apple will switch the Mac to ARM or move iOS to the x86. This is not a company that follows the beaten track.
Technically, however, the best bets are that x86 processors will remain the high-performance leaders for desktops, laptops, and servers, while ARM processors will not lose their low-power advantages for mobile devices. Expect the rest of the industry to follow those assumptions until something radically changes. Apple, as it has in the past, could be that radical catalyst.
This story, "The pros and cons of an Apple-Intel divorce," was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Follow the latest developments in processors and Mac OS X at InfoWorld.com. For the latest developments in business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.