"With NAND pricing having returned to per-gigabyte pricing levels not seen in two years, there's likely to be a lot of new buzz created for the solid state storage market at the end of 2010," Yang said. "However, traditional HDDs gained a lot of additional ground during the past few years in terms of rising capacity and falling prices. In fact, HDDs have gained so much ground that SSDs now are in danger of never regaining their competitive footing."
Yang believes that in order for SSDs to compete against HDDs, per-GB pricing for NAND flash memory will have to decline to 40 cents by 2012, which would mean a 100GB SSD would cost about $50. At that price, SSD would be appealing in both the consumer and corporate PC marketplaces, he said.
While the second half of 2010 is almost certain to see shortages for 2-bit-per cell MLC NAND, 3-bit-per cell NAND is expected to boom as supply is sufficiently ahead of demand, Yang stated.
Lucas Mearian covers storage, disaster recovery and business continuity, financial services infrastructure and health care IT for Computerworld. Follow Lucas on Twitter at @lucasmearian or subscribe to Lucas's RSS feed. His email address is firstname.lastname@example.org.
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