1. Network access control
Forrester believes the market for stand-alone NAC offerings will likely be phased out over the next five to 10 years. (Though Forrester suggests there's a bit more hope for "packaging NAC" in security software suites or infrastructure security.) Why is it bad news for NAC? Forrester says only 10 percent of technology decision makers will implement it over the next 12 months because "solutions are complex to deploy, scale and manage." There are several NAC architectures, plus hardware and software approaches, and "all the approaches require integration with network infrastructure components." "NAC won't stop a malicious insider who wants to commit a security breach for financial or other reasons," Forrester says.
2. Secure file transfer (as an on-premise appliance)
The need to securely transfer and share files between business partners is high, but in three to five years, it's going to be done more and more with cloud-based services rather than appliances, according to Forrester.
3. Unified threat management
Though widely deployed in small and branch offices for DSL wide-area network implementations, UTMs face dislocation from new security gateways with more integrated firewall and intrusion features that make UTM look "antiquated." Forrester gives UTM one to three years to evolve to meet competitive challenges and be more "enterprise-ready," though it also acknowledges UTM is likely to be "moderately successful over the long run" in retail stores.
Forrester says the two below are "declining."
4. Traditional network firewall
The traditional firewall market "will stall as wide adoption of next-generation firewall (NGFW) technology occurs," says Forrester. The research firm says the outlook for the next five to 10 years is that NGFW will ultimately replace today's traditional firewalls, though these old-timers will still be the main line of cyber defense for at least the next five years.
5. Network intrusion prevention (stand-alone)
Forrester believes the market for stand-alone intrusion-prevention systems (IPS), despite its success being deployed by the world's largest companies, is in decline and "will likely phase out in the next 5 to 10 years" as multifunction gateways and firewalls, especially NGFW, include IPS and are used instead of stand-alone IPS equipment.
Ellen Messmer is senior editor at Network World, an IDG publication and website, where she covers news and technology trends related to information security.
Read more about wide area network in Network World's Wide Area Network section.