Weiss says the migration to commodity x86 processors will accelerate because of the hardware cost advantages. "Horizontal, scalable architectures; clustering; cloud computing; virtualization on x86 -- when you combine all those trends, the operating system of choice is around Linux and Windows," he says.
"For example," Weiss says, "in the recent Cisco announcement for its Unified Computing architecture, you have this networking, storage, compute and memory linkage in a fabric, and you don't need Unix. You can run Linux or Windows on x86. So, Intel is winning the war on behalf of Linux over Unix."
The Open Group, owner of the Single Unix Specification and certifier of Unix systems, concedes little to Linux and calls Unix the system of choice for "the high end of features, scalability and performance for mission-critical applications." Linux, it says, tends to be the standard for smaller, less critical applications.
AT&T's Korn is among those still bullish on Unix. Korn says a strength of Unix over the years, starting in 1973 with the addition of pipes, is that it can easily be broken into pieces and distributed. That will carry Unix forward, he says: "The [pipelining] philosophy works well in cloud computing, where you build small reusable pieces instead of one big monolithic application."
The Unix legacy
Regardless of the ultimate fate of Unix, the operating system born at Bell Labs 40 years ago has established a legacy likely to endure for decades more. It can claim parentage of a long list of popular software, including the Unix offerings of IBM, HP, and Sun, Apple's Mac OS X, and Linux. It has also influenced systems with few direct roots in Unix, such as Microsoft's Windows NT and the IBM and Microsoft versions of DOS.
Unix enabled a number of startup companies to succeed by giving them a low-cost platform to build on. It was a core building block for the Internet and is at the heart of telecommunications systems today. It spawned a number of important architectural ideas such as pipelining, and the Unix derivative Mach contributed enormously to scientific, distributed and multiprocessor computing.
The ACM may have said it best in its 1983 Turing award citation in honor of Thompson and Ritchie's Unix work: "The genius of the Unix system is its framework, which enables programmers to stand on the work of others."
Gary Anthes is a former Computerworld national correspondent.