Since its release this June, GPLv3 certainly seems to have taken on the role of baby Damien within the open source licensing world. Sure, it's cute and cuddly at first glance, but behind its deep blue eyes lurk pure and unhinged evil ... at least if you believe the recent Evans Data survey (login required). With 380 developers who were working on open source software polled, only 6 percent of whom have adopted GPLv3, it seems that not even Damien's dedicated but possessed nanny will go near him.
Then again, Palamida's posted conversion rates (for projects converting fully to GPLv3) seem to indicate that the Evans Data results may be a bit too pessimistic.
So who do we believe: Palamida or Evans Data? I think it's too early to bash either set of numbers. Obviously if Palamida continues to compile conversion numbers, we'll be able to more accurately compare notes between actual conversions and the Evans Data estimated adoption rate, which calls for 66 percent of the populace not adopting it within the next year and 43 percent staying fully away from GPLv3. But will that tell us whether GPLv3 is a flop?