Google holds the future of Linux

Google's slow, steady march into the OS realm has begun to pay off, and it's time for the Linux world to rally around the search giant

I used to think Ubuntu was destined to lead Linux into the mainstream, but now it's looking much more like Google -- not Canonical -- will be the first Linux vendor to truly challenge Microsoft.

Google's migration into the operating system business has been so gradual that many industry watchers have shrugged it off. When the company announced its Android OS for phones, it looked interesting. There was nothing new about the idea of using Linux on a handset and (apart from Google's involvement) little reason to expect it would carve out substantial market share in the competitive smartphone arena. But, with about 20 distinct Android handsets in the hands of more than three million users worldwide -- and about 30 more devices expected to roll out in 2010 -- Google's mobile OS is now looking like a force to be reckoned with.

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What's most striking about Google's apparent success in the OS market is that it has chosen not to fight Microsoft where it is strongest (on the desktop), but where it is waning. While Windows Mobile 6.5 is a competent mobile OS, Microsoft has failed to generate genuine excitement for users who've been dazzled by the far more compelling iPhone OS. Simultaneously, Microsoft has not managed to convert its dominance in the datacenter into a serious challenge to RIM's BlackBerry devices among business users.

Carolina Milanesi, Gartner research director for mobile devices, reports that Windows Mobile slipped to 7.9 percent in the third quarter of 2009. World leader Symbian also slid, from 49.7 percent to 44.6 percent. Meanwhile, BlackBerry and iPhone have grown to 20.8 percent and 17.1 percent, respectively. Amid all this shuffling, Google Android has carved out a 3.5 percent share for itself in the mobile marketplace -- not bad for a newcomer.

The desktop market, over which Microsoft utterly dominates with a market share exceeding 92 percent according to the latest Net Applications stats, is another story entirely. In this arena, all desktop Linux distributions combined comprise less than 1 percent of the total market -- a statistic that hasn't budged in years despite great strides in both the overall quality of Linux distributions and support from major PC vendors.

Google appears to have effectively executed its entry into the OS business by targeting the rapidly expanding mobile sphere, and it's now starting to reap rewards for its efforts. Android isn't just building a user base -- it's generating real buzz among consumers. This excitement doesn't appear likely to let up anytime soon, either. With big-name manufacturers rolling out handsets across all major carriers in a steadily flowing stream of hot product announcements, Android's momentum will almost certainly continue to build.