How ending exclusivity agreements would change the telecom industry

IPhone lovers who want their device freed from AT&T's wireless network could soon get their wish.

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, the Department of Justice is contemplating the launch of an investigation into the exclusivity agreements that device manufacturers often sign with big incumbent telecom carriers. At issue, according to the report, is whether having exclusive rights to certain high-profile wireless devices such as the Apple iPhone and the Palm Pre gives larger carriers an unfair competitive advantage over smaller wireless carriers that can't afford to pony up the cash needed to get top devices on their networks.

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Although there is some doubt as to whether the Justice Department would be on firm legal standing if it tried to bar companies from signing exclusivity agreements, the fact that it is even considering an investigation raises some interesting questions about the future of the wireless industry. For example, if carriers could not secure big-name devices for their networks, how would it change the ways they compete for customers?

The company most immediately impacted by ending exclusivity agreements would be AT&T, as its recent success has been helped largely by the fact that it is the only mobile network in the United States to offer the Apple iPhone. AT&T says that the device has helped it substantially since its release in 2007, as the average monthly revenues from its iPhone subscribers are nearly double those of the rest of its mobile subscriber base. AT&T has also received a significant boost in overall subscribers from the device, as the iPhone accounted for an estimated 73% of its subscriber additions in the first quarter .

However, there have been rumblings from iPhone users recently that suggest AT&T could lose a good number of its smartphone customers if the iPhone were to become available on other networks. Complaints over the company's pricing policies and its data speeds mean that some iPhone users would gladly shift over to companies such as Sprint or Verizon if given the chance.

"The iPhone was a home run for both AT&T and Apple, but at some point it's going to become available on other networks,” says telecom analyst Jeff Kagan, who notes that even if the government doesn't intervene, AT&T will likely lose its exclusive deal with Apple sometime within the next two years. "Because customers who would rather be on Sprint or Verizon would be able to do that, they may lose a significant portion of their customers to other carriers.”