November 24, 2009

Why open source could kill Android's chances

The fractured fate of desktop Linux should be a cautionary tale to Google and spur it to treat Android like a strong platform, not a starting point

In very Orwellian logic, a couple readers have told me that the lack of gesture support in the Android OS's UI and stock apps was a good thing, because it would let the open source community innovate in individual apps for the Google mobile platform. By leaving such basic functionality as gestures nonstandardized, they argued, the platform would be fertile ground for the open source community to develop untold wonders that would render the controlled platforms such as the iPhone as dinosaurs.

This is precisely why I fear for Android's future. The open source community is much more likely, based on its history, to screw around with umpteen hundred variations that are piled willy-nilly on top of umpteen OS variants, creating a mess that only a few nerds will want to play with.  In other words, we'll end up with a replay of desktop Linux, which in 10 years is still a mess of precious versions and precious innovations, yet lacks basics such as common drivers and interface standards that would let regular people use it and let developers who need to earn a living get enough of a market to bother.

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Google would be stupid to let the open source community turn Android into yet another series of technologist-oriented fantasy fiefdoms sparring like medieval kingdoms. The open source community should either leave Android alone or coalesce into a de facto manager, as has happened with successful open source efforts such as server Linux and MySQL. Of course, that means not being a free-for-all, but a virtual or real "company," as those successful open source efforts actually are.

If the rumors are to be believed, Google gets the problem, which is why it supposedly is planning its own gPhone for early 2010 to set a standard, deeply functional version of the platform that might actually take root.

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answerguy 24-Nov-09 3:42am

I don't want to waste time and energy in putting comment on this post cause its written with the intention of gathering more and more eye-balls.

Time will tell. Fate of this column.

buggybugbug 24-Nov-09 4:36am
Typical misguided speculation...and belated, viz yor competitors, as shown by googling 'Android fragmentation'. As in your 2 Nov. piece (where you claim Verizon's personal account-holders must pay extra to access their own Exchange servers, then 'contrast' this with virtually identical AT&T plans!), you are long on provocation and short on facts. In fact, Android's core design minimizes any opportunity for important operational incompatibilities. And tho I agree that hardware variables (screen-size, CPU, GPU) can be problematic, these may easily be overcome by diligent coding & testing...something which the larger dev-houses bring with them, as they enter Android Market. Let's also note that all 'Google Experience' phones, per se, feature 100% vanilla Android ROMs. And of course, any first-year marketing student could explain to you why manufacturers who sell phones which seriously conflict with Android Market apps - or otherwise FUBAR the user experience - will be _roundly_ rejected, by consumers. As for parallels with Linux/LinMo woes, I just don't see a good case for that. And it doesn't help that the prosecution is grasping at straws, by the handful. The fork trope was bad enough, but then we get Musical Failure Scenarios. Interfering FOSS groups, technical incoherence, jumbled framework, consumer perceptions...how about H1N1? Clearly, Google has a very real stake in Android's success. And various Googlers - notably, Jean-Baptiste Queru - are driving AOSP's planning & development efforts. That's why some fist-pumping Linux pundits are complaining that Android is 'not really open-source'! Beat me how you might envision Google suddenly switching from shepherds to sheep.
abimanyu 24-Nov-09 4:53am
Opensource will not kill Android if there is any one who could kill android is Vendors like HTC by modding android for each and every phone they release and creating new problem to developers when ever they release new phones.
viciousk 24-Nov-09 11:13am
Honestly, I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about. You clearly haven't used linux in the past 4 years. The hardware interface is handled by the kernel which is practically identical for all linux distributions. As for common standards, what do you call CUPS, Alsa, GTK, QT, or X11? Lets just call a spade a spade, you do not understand nor trust the idea of spontaneous organization and you can't conceive of something as complex as an operating system being created without a single leader. You are a software fascist plain and simple. I just hope you don't apply this mentality to other aspects of life.
merrill77 24-Nov-09 11:55am
"But from a user perspective, it's a different Android". Huh? It has many/most of the same Google-supplied apps that users expect to see. Many/most apps in the marketplace will run on the HTC units running Sense UI. So UI has been skinned - do you understand what that even means? I'm pretty sure most users do. I'm not impressed with your analysis.
RamboTribble 24-Nov-09 12:33pm
I'm not sure anyone who wasn't there for CP/M is qualified to address a fragmented desktop environment. Does the existence of Win 95, 98, ME, 2000, XP, Vista, and 7 constitute a "fractured" desktop? And, if not, why not, since each new version rearranges access to basic functionality?
bz8x8c 24-Nov-09 2:08pm
I get what Galen is trying to say here because I've struggled with the Linux desktop experience myself for many years. The desktop I'm typing this from is a Linux desktop, and I have always been frustrated by how each program or driver must be downloaded and compiled before I can get anything to work correctly. Many times, the compile process has additional problems due to available libraries or other platform differences.

When you talk about Windows fragmentation between 7 versions, that's comparable to the variety of Redhat Linux versions, but throw in a dozen different Linux distros, and you start to get the idea of the fragmentation he's talking about. If there were 12 Windows variations, with each one having Windows 95, 98, ME, etc., then you would get an apples to apples comparison with the Linux community.

There's too much fighting between the various Linux distributions, and this is largely responsible for the lack of traction that Linux has had against Windows and Mac OS's. The warning against Android going down the same path is a valid point, and I truly hope the various phone vendors opting to use Android get the point. I have high hopes for Android and would hate to have the same experience I've had with desktop Linux, even though I'm very happy using Linux. It would just be nice if the vendor community gave some thought to these issues instead of worrying only about their own bottom line.
halfstop 25-Nov-09 7:41am
I almost didn't want to comment on the seriously flawed logic of this story, but here goes. The Linux desktop didn't not fail because it was left to the open source community. It failed because Linux has always been a geeks OS that can and will never compete with Mac or Microsoft. There's was no money to be made in developing a Linux desktop because there's nobody selling Linux workstations to regular people. I think Workspace was a great desktop, but not for the average shmoe. Open source developers will not ruin Android and they didn't ruin Linux as a desktop OS. Linux never had a chance to take over the desktop market and I can't think of anyone who could have made that happen.
RamboTribble 25-Nov-09 10:59am
So, how is it that a product, the Linux desktop, that continues to grow and aggregate market share has "failed"? A new product introduced to a mature market always takes time to develop its user base. Does anyone remember the days of the Honda 600? And it even had marketing. Do you have any idea how long it the plain paper copier to become a common office fixture?
BigRonG 30-Nov-09 10:12am
If you understand that I am not an open source developer, you will understand my puzzlement. Linux, Windows, etc. are all fractured. Windows is easier because there is always the latest dominant one. Linux has a bevy of latest competitors. So I understand the concern of the story. What I don't understand is the apparent 'hide your head in the sand' attitude of what appear to be die-hard Linux supporters. If something is a problem, shouldn't it be discussed without 'bomb-throwers' hanging around the outside trying to cause chaos? Perhaps the driver issue was mistated in the article. In my user view, it's not that there is no driver support - it is that many legacy but still used types of hardware and many pieces of current hardware have no easily findable drivers in the distributions. So label me now but I think there is a kernel of truth that needs to be examined.

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