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March 12, 2010

Only a fool would pre-order an iPad

Apple is taking early orders for its tablet, even though no one's really sure what they're buying

By Galen Gruman | InfoWorld
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Remember, the same thing happened with the iPod Touch, Apple's iPhone-based PDA. The first-generation iPod Touch could play only a few sounds and even then only at a whisper, so its calendar alarms and new-email alerts were useless unless you wearing its earphones. You couldn't change the volume without using the touchscreen -- a real issue when driving, jogging, or carrying groceries. There was no microphone, so you couldn't take voice memos or use services like Skype. (Apple even blocked external microphones from working on it!) Despite Apple making sure each iPhone OS revision has continued to support the first-generation iPod Touch, those hardware limits remain in the actual devices.

You can bet that similar types of issue will be discovered in the first iPad.

Maybe I'm wrong -- maybe the iPad will be the full "magic" that Steve Jobs promises. Wonderful! If that's the case, buy one when you know it really is magic -- after people not employed by Apple have had a chance to really use it and put it through its paces. Until then, why send Apple your money until you know for sure? Doing so would be, well, foolish.

One positive sign in all this iPad hoopla: One of my breathless local TV news stations had its tech reporter at an Apple Store last night hoping to find people lined up to camp out so they could be first in line this morning (at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, 5:30 a.m. Pacific) to order an iPad -- the station was clearly hoping for the kind of lemming-like frenzy we saw for Windows 95 (remember that?), the first iPhone, and for fan-driven movies like the "Star Wars," "Star Trek," and "Harry Potter" franchises.

But guess what: There was no line. Sure, it looked like a few people were willing to go online first thing in the morning to order their iPads sight unseen, or even head to an Apple Store before work today to order one. But only a few. Maybe the infamous Jobs reality distortion field does have limits after all. (Yes, I know you can't pre-order an iPad at the Apple Store. Clearly the TV station's anchorwoman didn't know when she asked the on-the-scene reporter if people were lining up already. And I doubt she's alone in that misimpression.)

A fool and his money are soon parted, the saying goes. Let's hope most Apple fans are as smart as they claim to be.

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This article, "Only a fool would pre-order an iPad," was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Read more of Gruman et al.'s Mobile Edge blog and follow the latest developments in mobile computing at InfoWorld.com.

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EVVJSK 12-Mar-10 8:00am
Remember how frustrated iPhone users were initially when they bought the phones and then the prices went down relatively soon after the initial sales surge? More than likely the same thing will happen here.
agedwirehead 12-Mar-10 10:01am
1 reply
There are many reasons why someone might pre-order and not be a fool, but primarily anyone who must evaluate the unit: software developers, companies with outbound professionals looking for data capture, etc. I would rather bang on a unit for under $1000 than make a mistake and buy many units of some other pad that turns out to be less than adequate by comparison. Evaluations aren't really possible without at least one hands-on unit. Ask the Test Center. But if someone is looking for a toy and has the money to burn (I've met one or two of these) I wouldn't begin to call them fools. After all, they earned their money somehow. If this is just a large version of the iPod Touch, I think I have some apps for it. The real questions for these apps is: does it work, is it convenient, does it last, etc. Won't be the first product I have purchased for evaluation that is now in some landfill--if it turns out to be useless.
shamunda 12-Mar-10 10:16am
1 reply
"The real questions for these apps is: does it work, is it convenient, does it last, etc." This is not a real question and has never been the question. What this is, is an attempt to be the future, not an attempt to be another "it just works" type of device. However in my opinion the future is not with devices that undercut the edge technology. The future of these types of devices lay with the other types push the envelope. The iPad is not this type of device. Regardless of whether the user needs as much power as the new slates present (HP, Lenovo, Fujitsu, Acer, InkMotion, etc..etc.). The edge of future computing technology will be in those devices.
agedwirehead 13-Mar-10 5:01pm
In the realm of product evaluations (my stated reason for an early purchase) those are real questions. Of course, there are many more. If I get the drift of your comment, you are talking about the bigger picture of cutting-edge devices. I don't know if iPad is one of those devices, and I don't really care. I do want to compare it to the other devices I have already been evaluating. It may or may not smoke the competition. We'll see. The key is that this toaster is going to be a lot better at toasting than a 350 degree oven. It won't eliminate ovens or toaster ovens, but it will provide convenience. Net books were almost a great idea. I spent a lot of time testing them. Unfortunately, they are mostly just broken laptops. (Broken in the usefulness category.) Nice, pricy toys! From what I can tell, the iPad is different.
dgrizzle 12-Mar-10 10:25am
1 reply
I'm a little tired of all the IT Priesthood gnashing their teeth that Apple has built a mass market device that has barriers of entry. This is an exact analogy to a gated community. The IT Priesthood who like to point at Apple and shout that Steve Jobs is a false prophet, and that all who enter are fools. Well, the public is more sophisticated than it used to be, and the royal vestments of the IT Priesthood are more a case of the Emperor having no clothes. The real fools in the mass market may be those who heed the IT Priesthood and fail to retreat to safety behind the walls of a gated community. Call end users ignorant, unwashed, uninformed, and misled. But until you can deliver a technology experience that serves them at a higher standard than Apple products, I'd beg you to shut up. Because, in the real world, people are fed up with computers and the teaming toxic cesspool of "open system" technology served up by the IT Priesthood. As to the iPad, the opinions expressed in this article are nothing more than a FUD bowel movement. This old IT trick has become utterly boorish and tiresome. FUD practitioners operate with all the brain power of Detroit in the early 1970's. If you want to identify a real fool, locate any technologist who claims otherwise.
MAS 12-Mar-10 12:43pm
1 reply
The "gated community" analogy is a bit flawed. It's more like North Korea. In a gated community, the home owners decide who to let in. In North Korea, the Kim Jong-Il decides who to let in. So, with the i-products (iPhone, iPad, iDunnoWhatsNext, etc.) Steve Jobs is Kim Jong-Il, and the home owners are the people who buy the devices.
DaveLindhout 13-Mar-10 9:38am
MAS, I believe dgrizzle is closer to reality than you are. If the iPad was like North Korea, Safari wouldn't exist on it and the outside world would be closed to you. You are free to roam about the world, but you can find comfort within the confines of the App Store.
GrammyPuter 12-Mar-10 11:53am
The writer is evidently a "glass half-full" type of person. Although a card-carrying IT professional, I have always been a "bleeding edge" type of person. I purchased a Mac in April 1984, later I pre-ordered a first-gen iBook, and I wasn't unhappy with either. As long as you are aware of what you are doing, and don't put your life in the hands of a first-gen device, you can learn a lot and teach that to others.
joecompute 12-Mar-10 12:21pm
Oooh! Oooh! But I need it to go with my tiny dog and D&G shades!!
quark gluon plasma 12-Mar-10 12:48pm
To the extent that this column applies to the iPad, it applies three-fold or more to every other company that tries to make competing devices. When I look at what other companies are doing- the half-baked portable devices, the special-purpose bolt-ons for tv's and game systems, the poorly-designed software- it's clear that you should wait at least 6 months after any release before buying any of that stuff. With Apple, people would like to pay less, but they almost always don't regret their purchases. And yes, this column is FUD.
MAS 12-Mar-10 12:49pm
I would just say that the title could be changed to: "Only a fool would pre-order anything".

In the case of the iPad, maybe if $800 is such a trivial amount of money to someone that it just doesn't matter if the iPad is a bit disappointing. However, honestly, what does anyone really know about the iPad experience in the future?

dmoorewv 12-Mar-10 12:57pm
Apple is selling this thing at about 20,000 units an hour. A lot of "mis-guided fools" I would say. Early adopters know what they are getting into and they should accept the fact that this device may not be what they were expecting. Infoworld is no longer a place for objective reporting. I am unsubscribing immediately. Thank you Mr. Gruman for making the final push!
jbhjbh 12-Mar-10 1:16pm

Remember what happened when the iPhone came out. 3 Mothns later the price was reduced.

SteveL 12-Mar-10 1:24pm
Mr. Gruman's comment about "mis-guided fools" who order the iPad might be a little over-the-top, but the concept is correct. The iPad is a very limited device with no USB, no memory slot or expansion capability, and locked into Apple's proprietary system. I can't see where the iPad could perform any useful functions beyond what the iPhone can do already. You could buy a terrific netbook or tablet computer for the price of an iPad that has much more capability.
Major Plonquer 12-Mar-10 5:35pm

It was PT Barnum who postulated that 'There's a sucker born every minute'. However, now thanks to the combined influence of global population growth and Apple's marketing department that is now down to 38 seconds.

bccb 13-Mar-10 6:58am
Well ... I don't want to be pessimistic but based on what happened yesterday with only one day of iPad (pre)sales (can we drop 'pre' already) ... they just put a lot of distance on any competition. Granted you could call all the early adopters 'fanboys' if it weren't already a familiar story ... iPod, iPhone. Unless sales totally collapse between now and the official release date ... that's all we can hope for (only Apple has the true trajectory). This device is plain and simple like all Apple products with minimal connectivity and options for anything else but guess what ... who cares if it sells. Actually I think if 'pads' really do become a new standard there will be room for the 'also rans'.
DeepWater 13-Mar-10 9:41am
It looks like Apple has managed to sell over 90,000 iPad units in the first day alone and the estimated sales amount to $54 million. I guess there is a reason why Steve Jobs is a billionaire and you are a penniless technoblogger.
bccb 13-Mar-10 10:14am
The hype will die down ... but what will be the sustained sales? I guess it depends on if the iPad can continue to entertain or perform some daily work ... if people start to put it aside and return to their laptop or desktop then it will fail. A 'flash' in the pan? No pun intended. I think it will be a mild success like a smaller echo of the iPod to iPhone sales. Therefore, I think their planned sales were: iPod ~100 million ... iPhone ~10 millions to iPad ~millions? There is just too much hype on all these alternative type of devices or tablets or pads.
philc 13-Mar-10 6:27pm
I'd hold off a bit. I got a netbook and like it, for what it is. But even waiting a year, it was still too soon. A few months after I got one, they changed all the specs and hardware on the newer ones to stuff like sata drives, rather than the nearly extinct ide drives.
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