It's one thing to track the future of a mobile platform by projecting trends in unit sales, wireless operator contract wins, and so on. Based on traditional analysis, it looks like the iPhone and Android will be running neck and neck in 2012 in terms of global market share. I've always believed that the more reliable predictions are rooted in tracking investment not by consumers or investors, but developers. Software development dollars being budgeted and spent now are aimed at reaping the opportunities of markets two years away.
I live in a region so thick with telecommunications companies and the businesses that serve them that I can derive a decent forecast of the mobile and wireless sectors by standing on my roof with binoculars. Everything from freeway traffic to the For Sale signs in front yards are barometers for mobile's future. But I've found that the simplest indicator of all is a conversation with a few well-informed recruiters. Recruiters that deal in mobile and embedded application and system software developers have their finger on the pulse of R&D expenditures.
[ InfoWorld's Neil McAllister explains how to choose a mobile app dev platform -- and why Android may be a bad bet for developers. | Get InfoWorld's 20-page hands-on look at the new generation of mobile devices, from InfoWorld's editors and contributors. ]
I've learned that while overall R&D spending on information technology is slack as companies wait out the recession, the mobile industry is growing quite aggressively, or at least reaching in new directions that call for added staff.
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