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October 29, 2009

Android 2.0: The iPhone killer at last?

Get past the hype: Here's the real deal on Android's chances to unseat the iPhone

By Galen Gruman | InfoWorld
| Print | 5 comments|
60 Recommendations

In its three years, the iPhone has redefined the mobile device. But despite the iPhone's popularity, it is by no means certain to become the mobile equivalent of Windows, the dominant platform that defines our experience of a particular technology, as well as the business choices that surround it.

Google's Android 2.0 OS is the latest in a series of mobile offerings seeking to derail the iPhone's momentum. Backed by heavyweights Google, Motorola, Verizon Wireless, Acer, and other big-name manufacturers, Android could potentially knock the iPhone down a peg. After all, while users love the iPhone, Apple's controlling tendencies have frustrated developers, and its disrespect for business concerns have frustrated IT.

[ InfoWorld's Neil McAllister wonders why Android developers seem so unhappy. | Get InfoWorld's 20-page hands-on look at the new generation of mobile devices. | Video preview: See the Android 2.0 Droid in action. ]

Meanwhile, Research in Motion's BlackBerry remains well entrenched, despite the iPhone onslaught and RIM's own slow response in adapting the BlackBerry beyond messaging. And for most of the world, Nokia's Symbian is king -- not to mention the fact that Palm and Microsoft have yet to give up on their respective WebOS and Windows Mobile visions.

Simply put, it's a tumultuous and rapidly evolving time for mobile -- so what's a buyer, IT organization, or developer to do? Here's a guide to the key issues that are shaping the still young mobile marketplace, and how Android will fare carving a niche for itself in mobile IT.

Motorola and Verizon: Sights are set on the iPhone
In a few weeks, the first smartphones using Google's Android 2.0 will be available, with iPhone competitors Motorola and Verizon Wireless already promoting Droid as the iPhone killer. And no doubt, the recently released Android 2.0 SDK will draw developer interest. But we've heard this song before, hype and SDK, applied both to poorly designed products such as the RIM BlackBerry Storm as well as to good products such as the Palm Pre. None, including Android's previous incarnations, has succeeded in unseating the iPhone.

So what makes Android 2.0 a plausible competitor? For starters, this fourth version of the Android OS finally supports Microsoft Exchange, though carriers and device makers are able to turn off that feature if they want. It also supports multiple e-mail accounts in a single inbox. Increased support for HTML 5 technologies -- including database APIs, offline application caching, and geolocation -- also mean that Android 2.0 devices and apps can have the kind of rich functionality the iPhone is known for, in a multi-app context unknown to the iPhone.

Of course, the Palm Pre's WebOS also offers most of these capabilities, yet has not stood up to the iPhone. However, that may be more an issue of Palm being a small company at the edge of extinction before the Pre came out and the fact that only an also-ran carrier widely rumored to be up for sale -- Sprint -- agreed to offer it in the United States.

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fjfortner 29-Oct-09 9:50am
I have a slightly different opinion on this topic. As a software developer in the healthcare industry with applications dating back to the early part of this decade, I have seen much of this before and I'm not buying into the Android hype just yet. I would assert the iPhone is as close to a Windows-like dominating device as we've ever seen (in the mobile space) and for several good reasons which are expounded all over cyberspace. I also believe their success and dominance will continue at least for a time - exactly how long is partially up to Apple and their commitment the iPhone platform. If nothing else, Apple has done a great job of infusing much needed stability into mobile application development. I still remember the days when Windows PocketPC / Windows Mobile OS was running on the 'iPAQ of the week' or the Dell Axim of the month, etc. That was a nightmare for developers. Standard OS? Software that will run on ANY PocketPC? Not exactly. We often found software that ran fine on the Axim but didn't run fine on a particular flavor of the Compaq and visa versa. Enter the iPhone platform. Less headaches due to fewer devices to support (yes 3GS introduced a few compatibility issues) and the main component we longed for in the Windows Mobile world - a robust development environment with broad distribution - the AppStore. I agree that Apple has not been perfect in the business world, but having said that, I currently use my iPhone 3GS with Exchange and I have no complaints. I've used Treos, Windows Mobile devices, you name it - but nothing has ever come close to the user experience I get with the iPhone. I even watch Webex events on it! Has Apple been perfect? No. Inflexible at times? Yes. Do I want to see the iPhone on Verizon and TMobile and Sprint - absolutely! But as a device and platform that came about at the right time - iPhone was all that and it's going to be very difficult to knock it off its perch. Frank Fortner SVP, Application Software Iatric Systems, Inc.
bkfist 29-Oct-09 2:15pm
I'm really, really surprised that you were able to utter the words "Black Berry" there at the end considering what piece of Steve Job's anatomy you are obviously indulging in.
kgelner 30-Oct-09 8:06pm
I have two issues: 1) Asia. The reason it "doesn't register" is because they don't even sell the iPhone in China yet - but they are going to very shortly. We know there is demand there from all the unlocked iPhones already going to China. But the "other Asia" is Japan, and actually the iPhone is now #1 in marketshare for smartphones there now! http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/43098/145/ 2) The Moat. The article doesn't really bring into play two large moats other systems have to cross. The first one is obvious since everyone always talks about it - applications. You can laugh at 100k applications being mostly junk, but with that many apps even if a small percentage are good that's a ton of good apps, that many people are using and rely on today. But the other moat, the one everyone seems to have mysteriously forgotten about is - devices and accessories. How did the iPod hold onto market share? Because there were accessories that worked with them everywhere, and most of those factors still apply. I can go into many hotels now and plug my iPhone into the stereo there, and yet no-one considers that any kind of draw for a user to the platform? Furthermore, Apple just this year opened up the iPhone to far more custom devices by providing an API developers can use to talk directly over USB or Bluetooth. Those take a while to produce so it'll be late this year or early next before you see many, but over time we are going to see a TON of custom devices for the iPhone. The first we know of is the special car dock for the TomTom app that includes a more powerful GPS receiver to improve turn-by-turn directions. Does the Droid car dock have that? Android devices generally have a USB port but I'm not sure there's much of an API you can use against that yet, and because of the Dock it's a lot easier to build devices that mesh well with the iPhone or Touch.
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