"By 2015 media tablet shipments will reach around 50 percent of laptop shipments and Windows will likely be in third place behind Android and Apple," wrote Cearley, in his report. "We believe the net result is that Microsoft's share of the client platform (PC, tablet, smartphone) will likely be reduced to 60 percent and it could fall below 50 percent."
Two: A long-term shift from native apps to Web apps as HTML5 becomes more capable
Gartner did note that native apps won't disappear and "will always offer the best user experience and most sophisticated features."
Three: The personal cloud replaces the notion of personal computer
The cloud will house all aspects of one's life, Gartner says. Because it's so vast, and capable of marshaling infinite resources, "no one platform, form factor, technology or vendor will dominate" it, Gartner says. It also means that IT will have to support almost everything.
Four: The Internet of Things
Everything will connect to the Internet, including cameras, microphones, augmented reality, buildings and embedded sensors everywhere. In many cases, it's here already. The Internet of Things will lead to new products, such as usage-based insurance or tax policies. It will also raise new questions, such as whether a robot interacting with an ERP system is a named user for the purposes of software licenses.
"We are at a point where it is no longer a stretch to imagine that much of what and who we interact with will be connected to the Internet," said Cearley.
Five: Cloud computing
As cloud adoption expands, IT departments will have to create "cloud services brokerages" to serve as a central focus for managing access to external services.
Six: Strategic big data
It's becoming more economical, thanks in part to low cost servers and CPUs, for organizations to tackle big data projects. By strategic big data, Gartner believes that users will be moving beyond isolated projects and incorporating big data analysis in more and more of what they do.
Seven: Actionable analytics
Actionable Analytics is, in some respects, a distinct subset of its sixth trend, Strategic Big Data. Low cost processing is making it possible "to perform analytics and simulation for each and every action taken in a business." Most analytics today focus on looking at historical analysis; the next step is predicting what might happen.
Eight: In-memory computing
In-memory Computing, says Gartner, can be transformational. It allows hours-long batch processes to be squeezed into processes that only take minutes or seconds. In-memory Computing will become a mainstream platform over the next year or two, as users seek more real-time analytical queries. It may pay for itself through improved efficiencies, such as fraud detection.
Nine: Virtual appliances integrated ecosystems
They won't kill off physical appliances and their security advantages, but virtual appliances will gain an increased place in IT operations.
Ten: Enterprise app stores
Enterprise App Stores will turn IT departments into market managers, providing governance and even support to "apptrepreneurs." App store markets will become the "anchor point" for users to get everything they need.
Patrick Thibodeau covers SaaS and enterprise applications, outsourcing, government IT policies, data centers and IT workforce issues for Computerworld. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @DCgov, or subscribe to Patrick's RSS feed. His email address is firstname.lastname@example.org.
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