In the Harry Potter series, the Divinations mistress at Hogwarts, Sybill Trelawney, got her job on the basis of one true prophecy, a feat never to be repeated. I'm not sure I've ever gotten even one end-of-year prediction entirely right, but there's another indicator I can look at: where I put my software development and writing efforts. In the early 1990s, I jumped headlong into developing for an iffy emerging technology. I wrote two books and part of a third about it, taught courses about it, reorganized my consulting practice around it, and took on a monthly magazine column about it.
That iffy emerging technology was Microsoft Windows, and the versions that made me really jump in after years of skeptical puttering were Windows 3 and Windows NT. Lest you think that was an easy call, at the time the industry press was all over Novell networking and IBM OS/2 as the serious up-and-coming technologies for business. I did hedge my bets; I kept OS/2 available as a boot option on my DOS/Windows machine, and I worked with a client whose product used Novell networks at hotels, but my main focus was Windows.
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I've done a lot of other things since then, but nothing convinced me to spend the time to write another book until recently. You've probably noticed that I've been writing a lot of articles about RIAs over the last few years. I was searching for a technology that could unite the benefits of desktop and Web applications.