Software development predictions for 2009

A battered economy will mean tightening belts, changing customer allegiances, and the Web as the platform of choice.

What would the New Year be without that time-honored publishing tradition: predictions? By the time you read this post it will be January already, but as I write it the champagne corks have yet to pop, so there's still time for me to gaze into my crystal ball. Right or wrong? Only time will tell. But here are a few thoughts as to what 2009 might have in store for the software development market.

Microsoft struggles to retool its image

Expect more overtures from Redmond toward the open source community as Microsoft continues to try to soften its image as an anticompetitive thug. We may even see an interesting Microsoft product or two running on Linux by year's end.

Interest in Windows Azure and related cloud computing technologies will continue to grow throughout 2009, but Microsoft should watch its step. The meaning of "cloud computing" is opaque enough already. Microsoft shouldn't muddy the waters further by being too liberal with ambiguous marketing terms such as "mesh" and "live," the way it did with .Net.

Also, Microsoft's "software plus services" concept is a strong direction, but it needs to be sure that its developer ecosystem comes along for the ride. As Steve Ballmer so famously observed, Microsoft achieved much of its success through the hard work of its ISV partners. Those partners need to be reassured that they won't be reduced to sharecroppers in Microsoft's service-oriented vision of the software market.

But of course, the big distraction next year will be Windows 7. If Microsoft can't get its OS house in order, it's going to have a hard time convincing developers of the value of its new technologies. More than Ray Ozzie's vision of the future, the company's ability to hold its core products together will be the ultimate test of Microsoft Anno Bill.

Java moves toward an open source mindset

Oracle's acquisition of BEA Systems made it one of the largest players in the Java application server market. But it's still too early to say how BEA customers have weathered the transition. Some might not appreciate their contracts being subsumed into Larry Ellison's software juggernaut.