2. The investment bubble will burst for consumer social networks in 2013, and for enterprise social software companies in 2014.
In the consumer social network space, there's a large crop of vendors with overlapping features competing for a finite audience. In the enterprise market, small vendors are struggling to grow, consolidation is imminent, and big players such as Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Google, and VMware are muscling in on the action, Gartner says. "While substantial excitement will be raised by private firms going public, valuations of smaller independent vendors will diminish as recognition sets in that the opportunities for market differentiation and fast growth has eroded."
3. At least 50 percent of enterprise email users will rely primarily on a browser, tablet, or mobile client instead of a desktop client by 2016.
As the options for email clients continue to grow, the need for mobile device management platforms will soar and suppliers will be pressured to support more collaboration services, including instant messaging, Web conferencing, social networking, and shared workspaces, Gartner predicts.
4. Mobile application development projects targeting smartphones and tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio of 4-to-1 by 2015.
"Smartphones and tablets represent more than 90 percent of the new net growth in device adoption for the coming four years, and increasing application platform capability across all classes of mobile phones is spurring a new frontier of innovation, particularly where mobile capabilities can be integrated with location, presence and social information to enhance the usefulness," Gartner says.
5. 40 percent of enterprises will make proof of independent security testing a precondition for using any type of cloud service by 2016.
Third-party testers won't be the only way for enterprises to evaluate cloud services for their security capabilities. Inspectors' certifications will become a viable alternative or complement to third-party testing, Gartner says. "This means that instead of requesting that a third-party security vendor conduct testing on the enterprise's behalf, the enterprise will be satisfied by a cloud provider's certificate stating that a reputable third-party security vendor has already tested its applications."
6. More than 50 percent of Global 1000 companies will have stored customer-sensitive data in the public cloud by year-end 2016.
Under pressure to reduce costs and operate more efficiently, more than 20 percent of organizations are already selectively storing customer-sensitive data in a hybrid cloud environment, Gartner says.
7. 35 percent of enterprise IT expenditures for most organizations will be managed outside the IT department's budget by 2015.
Business managers and individual employees are demanding more control over the IT expenditures related to their jobs. "CIOs will see some of their current budget simply reallocated to other areas of the business. In other cases, IT projects will be redefined as business projects with line-of-business managers in control," Gartner predicts.