Everyone, it seems, is reporting on the rapid growth of cloud computing. According to a study sponsored by tech consulting company Avanade, the Microsoft-Accenture joint venture, cloud computing is growing nicely: "Ten percent of the more than 500 executives responding were testing or had deployed cloud computing projects, compared with 3 percent when the same survey was conducted nine months earlier. The number of companies with no plans to adopt cloud computing dropped from 54 percent to 37 percent."
Keep in mind that both Accenture and Microsoft are heavily invested in cloud, but that data tracks with my personal experiences, and with the other data I'm seeing. For example, Gartner is also reporting bullish numbers around cloud computing, including the fact that cloud computing is now the top tech trend for 2010: "The general idea -- shared computing services accessible over the Internet that can expand or contract on demand -- topped Gartner's list of the 10 top technologies that information technology personnel need to plan for."
[ Get the no-nonsense explanations and advice you need to take real advantage of cloud computing in the InfoWorld editors' 21-page Cloud Computing Deep Dive PDF special report, featuring an exclusive excerpt from David Linthicum's new book on cloud architecture. | Stay up on the cloud with InfoWorld's Cloud Computing Report newsletter. ]
So what's the cloud in the silver lining? My core concern right now is that the rapid expansion of cloud computing is not occurring with a rapid expansion of those who understand the issues and best practices around cloud computing deployments. Thus, the pace of adoption and the lack of experience could derail many existing and forthcoming cloud computing projects. We could see a bit of a technological hangover in 2011 or 2012, following the cloud party we'll be having in 2010.
We saw the same issues around the rapid adoption of other computing trends, such as client/server, distributed objects, and other federated architectures, all of them platform shifts that promised great things but at the end of the day were -- well, just platform changes. As anybody who's done a few of these knows, changing platforms can be complex and problem-ridden no matter how good the new platform is. Thus, it takes some planning, architecture, and experience. These are all lacking now.
Perhaps I'm being too much of a "glass half empty" guy, but history is our teacher here.
This story, "The cloud party will be hopping in 2010 -- leading to a hangover in 2011," was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Follow the latest developments in cloud computing at InfoWorld.com.
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