June 30, 2009

Why margin isn't a good metric

A product's profit margin doesn't always tell you how a company is performing -- at least, not without a lot more context

Dear Bob ...

I have to disagree with you on your example from Keep the Joint Running this week ("Higher hierarchies," 6/22/2009), where you recommend marketshare over margin as one desirable characteristic of entrepreneurs.

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In my experience, it is not one over the other; both are critical to long-term success. Perhaps the lessons are still open to be learned, but incredible market share with little margin is ... Facebook? Or as my German friends say, "In America it is not 'I believe,' it is 'make believe'." For the one Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, there are thousands of tombstones for the dead companies that bet everything on market share with no care for profit margin.

- Skeptical


Dear Skeptical ...

I get that a lot. And looking at what I said in the article, I didn't clarify whether I was talking about overall corporate profit margin or average product profit margin. The two are vastly different subjects. For the record, I was referring to product profit margin, and for that I stand by my statement.

Product margin doesn't equal profit or even profitability. Some companies are well-known for having paper-thin margins and huge profits. ExxonMobil comes to mind (at least in their corporate propaganda -- I'm not sure if I believe 'em and I can't find an authoritative source of information).

The way it works is simple: The more volume you sell, the less margin you need, so long as you achieve the volume by turning over inventory instead of accumulating it. The key to more volume is market share, which has the additional benefits of taking market share away from competitors. In many cases it's also an indicator of increased customer loyalty, which makes it a predictor of success, where margin merely reports past success.

There are times when taking the risk of reduced corporate profits in exchange for increased market share makes sense as well. You mentioned Amazon.com, and it's an excellent example of a company that realized critical mass was, for its business model, everything, and succeeded in achieving it.

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Even without a business model that depends on critical mass, the combination of declining market share and increasing profit margin is a warning sign of trouble to come. General Motors is an example: Its management focused on profitability instead of focusing on building cars people want to buy.

An entrepreneur would never make a mistake like that.

- Bob

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woking 1-Jul-09 1:16pm
Bob, I couldn't agree more. GM made the same mistake that Bethlehem Steel made in the steel industry, as documented by Clayton Christiansen in "The Innovator's Dilemma", and other writings about disruptive technology. GM allowed itself to be forced into more profitable market segments by more efficient manufactureres, while losing market share, until there was nowhere left to go. I have been wondering when someone would make the connection in the business press between the travails of GM and Chrysler and the challenges of disruptive technology.
rdhalste 1-Jul-09 10:23pm
Widening profit margins and decreasing market share, a sure sign of trouble and that is just what the present administration has approved for GM. IOW, they are reducing the number of dealers and the number of models with the goal of increasing profit margin. To me that's not a very good sign. Every increase in margin means the customer gets less for their money. As far a narrow profit margins they can be not only good, but a competitive advantage. Look at how well that philosophy has worked for a number of chains. IF and I emphasize the IF the market is there in the first place, it's possible to reduce margin and increase share to the point of improved profits.
RichN 9-Jul-09 7:15am
There is one caveat to running on thin margins to increase market share. You must have a realistic knowledge of your true cost to make sure that your profit margin is not really a loss margin.

If you are going to run at a loss for a period of time in order to build market share, you must make sure that you have a realistic cash flow plan and a definite set of conditions that will determine when you can no longer run at a loss.

If you are going to run only a portion of you business at a loss (loss leader), then you need a realistic method to determine if this product is really increasing sales in the profitable portion of you business, or if your customers are taking the bait, but spitting out the hook.

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