July 10, 2009

Does a business win when its competitor loses? Absolutely

Business success has some odd definitions these days, and too many business leaders forget they are in competitions

Dear Bob ...
In a recent Advice Line, you said, "The key to more volume is market share, which has the additional benefits of taking market share away from competitors" (emphasis mine).

[ See the previous column: "Why margin isn't a good metric" | Get sage advice on IT careers and management from Bob Lewis in InfoWorld's Advice Line newsletter. ]

What are those additional benefits? I understand the benefits of volume and that it sometimes will be obtained by taking market share from competitors. However, taking market share from competitors for its own sake sounds a bit like cruelty. It seems to me like the difference between a pitcher throwing at a batter's head to move him away from the plate and make it harder to reach the outside pitch vs. throwing at a batter's head for the purpose of hurting him.

- Kinder and gentler


Dear K&G ...

Interesting you should ask -- I have read about and talked to a surprising number of business leaders who also don't see competition as a win/lose proposition.

I see the two as synonymous: If you're competing, that means you're going after the same customers and money, because customers are going to choose only one of you to buy from.

There are companies that pursue only what are called "missionary sales," which means they develop and sell products that constitute brand-new concepts and have no competitors. That lasts only until the missionary products are successful. Once they succeed, competing products spring up to try to carve out some of the market for themselves.

Put it differently: Every market is finite. That makes market share a zero-sum game.

- Bob

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Phansigar 10-Jul-09 3:56am
What kind of baseball did K&G play where the pitcher threw at the batter's head to get him off the plate? Throwing at the batter's head is cruelty, as K&G analogized, under any circumstances. A pitcher throws inside, usually at the torso or thighs, to brush a player back, but not at the head unless he's a plain sadist. BTW, I'd have thought that market share being a zero-sum game was obvious, and not some sort of cruelty. It's really pretty much Darwinian. Business isn't about making nice with your competition. First it's about surviving, then about thriving, prospering, and growing. Or to paraphrase Satchel Paige, "If you give your competitor a break you'd better look back, because he's probably gaining on you."
westerman 10-Jul-09 7:05am
I'll agree at some point market share is a zero-sum game where one should squash or at least keep down competitors. On the other hand there are many evolving markets where it can be helpful to have other companies pushing the product. As example think about cell phones. If there were only one provider and said provider made the phones very expensive (same profit, less work) then the cell phone market would have not grown to its current ubiquitous use. But having choices via competition has brought on an explosion of phones to the point where everyone benefits. The competition may be rough but I suspect that AT&T, Verizon, et.al. are making good enough profits. But then I come from an university research-based background where we compete for grants and other funding but also build on the shoulders of other peoples' work.
cullen 10-Jul-09 9:29am
1 reply

Westerman,

You're confusing what's good for the individual company and what's good for the industry. In the cell phone example, having multiple vendors has likely been good for the industry as a whole - though that's not obvious in parts of the world that have ubiquitous mobile phones in the presence of a monopoly or near monopoly. But an executive at AT&T is coveting every Sprint customer, and vice versa - it is not good for AT&T for Sprint to gain share, or even maintain it.

In rapidly expanding markets companies can have the luxury of growing volume while not growing share. This is not sustainable - a company that loses share will, eventually, lose volume as well.

Bob Lewis 10-Jul-09 11:03am
At the risk of pointing out the obvious, before there were cell phones and telephone competition, there was AT&T. Competition clearly was not good for AT&T: It's gone, except for the name -- it was bought, lock, stock and barrel, by Cingular a few years ago after many years of having failed in the competitive arena. - Bob
KevinH 10-Jul-09 12:27pm
wow - there is so much wrong with your supposition about market share i don't know where to start. If markets were finite (as you claim) we'd all long be dead of starvation. Maybe you got wrapped up in a self-fulfilling tautology. And the baseball analogy isn't useful either.
Gray_Hair 13-Jul-09 7:30am

Like KevinH said, there is so much wrong in this piece, it is hard to know where to start. One key concept, however, is that driving any business decision off of a single indicator (I.E. market share) is in and of itself foolish.

On a more fundamental level the whole attitude, "Every market is finite. That makes market share a zero-sum game." is the seductive error. Is is so comfortable to over simplify to the point of believing that statement. Which by the way is patently false. ALL markets are complex enough that a zero-sum equilibrium is not even a valid concept.

May I suggest a little study of the work of John Nash.

Gray_Hair 13-Jul-09 8:40am
1 reply

A colleague pointed out that I may have been excessively terse.

1st, he insisted I revel that I am not anti-competitive, quite the opposite he considers me a cut-throat competitor. The pertinence of that is not wholly clear to me.

But more importantly, (from my view), is he insists few will recognize the significance of the Nash reference. Suffice it to say, Nash is well known for his work in game theory. Now given that the theory of zero-sum games is vastly different from that of non-zero-sum games (game theory 101), the danger in describing something as zero-sum, that is in fact not, lies in that no action taken will have the effect one would expect. This is true because an optimal solution can always be found for a zero-sum-game, but not so in the non-zero-sum realm. Nash's equations provide some techniques for dealing with the complexity of non-zero-sum games.

Summary: Business is complex. Over simplification leads to error.

Bob Lewis 14-Jul-09 1:30pm
Oh, dear. We appear to be stuck on the meaning of the word "finite." I'm using it in its mathematical sense: "Not infinite."

No matter what you're selling, you're selling it to no more than six billion people, plus corporate, governmental and community entities. Each has a maximum level of consumption that can't be exceeded because (among other limiting factors) they'll run out of storage space to put it, if they don't run out of money to buy it.

More generally, at any given moment there's a finite amount of wealth owned by all of the above. If you created the most valuable product ever imagined you might imagine selling enough that you would receive all of that wealth in exchange ... and that's a finite number.

Less fancifully, imagine you manufacture cars for sale in the United States. We have approximately 220 million residents who are of driving age. Assuming each owns a car and the average car lasts six years, that means in any year the total, finite U.S. market for cars is one sixth of 220 million. (The actual numbers don't matter; adding corporate and rental fleets don't matter either - they change the finite numbers a bit; that's the extent of the situation.)

So there are limits on both total wealth and on the number of people and organizations who might reasonably want to buy what you have to sell.

Markets are, in other words, finite. Attempts to make them otherwise create bubbles, which collapse because bubbles drive consumption with unredeemable debt (debt not backed by wealth or future income). Eventually, confidence in the debt evaporates and the bubble-wealth evaporates with it.

Unless, of course, you've found a way to market to the near-infinite population of space aliens. But of course, to do so you'd have to distract them from their hobby of making crop circles.

- Bob

KevinH 15-Jul-09 10:10am
1 reply
Stick with IT, Bob. Markets aren't defined by the "six billion." Or the 220 million. Ever look at a historical chart of US auto sales? Notice how they increased year over year? Your 220 divide by 6 doesn't quite hold water. Ever hear of luxury markets for autos? hybrid-car markets? small-car markets? These increase the dimension of a simple formula like 220 divide by 6. Markets grow. Again, you're stuck in a tautology. Indeed, everything is finite, eventually and ultimately. But that's a foolhardy way to base any marketing (or competitive) strategy.
Bob Lewis 16-Jul-09 2:01pm
I don't know if you recall the dot-com bust. Part of the run-up consisted of the various marketing research firms projecting hockey-stick-curve growth for a wide variety of marketplaces. Had they all come out as projected, the sum total of the marketplaces would have added up to many multiples of the total available wealth on earth. Markets can and do grow ... until they don't, other than the growth that accompanies population growth. You mention automobile sales. In 1967, U.S. automobile sales were about 10 million. Just before the recent decline started they reached 16 million. (http://recession.org/library/graphs/monthly-automotive-sales-history). In 1967, the U.S. population was about 200 million. It's now 300 million. Just about the entire growth of the U.S. car market was the result of population increase, not industry innovation, the "creation of new markets," or anything else. Which means that in any given year, it was a zero-sum game, or as close as makes no difference.
kb9lgs 15-Jul-09 11:52am
I have to disagree. I would say that it is generally a close to zero sum game. It is difficult to make business competition a positive sum game especially on any long term basis. But it generally is easy to make it a negative sum game where you lose market share, not to a competitor, but completely eliminate it from the market. One of the fastest ways to do this is to produce a bad product. Generally people frequently don't then shop for a good one, they just stop using that type of product. A cell phone company which advertises service in an area and doesn't have it, generally will keep people from trying any other company which sells in their area. Bad customer service will also cause a drop in market. Usually that takes two companies. People who deal with the first set of bad customer service will say that someone else has to do better and will shop around. But if that company drops the ball they are gone.

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