The Beginning of the End

Follow @infoworld

You've heard this many places. Microsoft is in a bit of trouble. If you think that you've heard this before -- and that you can't count out a business with such strong financials, I suggest you revisit a bit of recent history. The demise and re-birth of IBM.

For those of us competing with IBM in the mid to late '80's, IBM was the prototypical 900lb gorilla. They could do nothing wrong, their products pervaded the business marketplace, and to sell our Vaxes into an account, we had to basically hide it from IT management. Just 5 years later, they were on the ropes, almost irrelevant to the changing nature of the technology world.

Unfortunately, things at Microsoft seem eerily similar. For example:

- Vista delayed (big surprise). Not really a surprise, but the real story is that Vista may already be totally irrelevant. How many IT shops want to try a new OS -- remember the Windows 2000 --> XP upgrade path?

- The EU. Seems they want to really mess up the Redmond party.

- Hiring. Google is hands down winning the hiring war. This is at all levels of hiring.

- Apple. Who's have thought that Apple would come back, all on the back of an MP3 player? Vista's delay just contributed to the sense that innovation in technology (devices, design, eco-systems like iPod + iTunes) happens outside of Redmond.

- Reorg Madness. The latest re-organization is not the last -- there are rumors of much more to come.

And so on. I'm now convinced that Microsoft cannot exist much longer as a single corporate entity -- there are too many new trends that they are not catching, and no clear competitor to crush.

Lest you think I am saying this with glee -- think again. It is unfortunate to see this form of corporate melt-down. Microsoft, more than most/any other technology company has done more to democratize PC technology. I think that when the story is written , Bill and Steve did too good a job at winning, and were left without real competitors too long. Dulls the edge of the organization. And that is the beginning of the end.