One billion smartphones by 2016
Consider this: NPD Display Search this week released its smartphone forecast. By 2016, cumulative shipments will pass the 1 billion mark. The overall volume is impressive, but so is the growth rate, a near doubling from expected shipments this year of a bit more than 500 million. Looking at NPD's chart, I'm also struck by the smoothness of the growth curve, as I'm always suspicious of analysts who predict hockey-stick growth. NPD is not doing that, which gives me more confidence in the forecast. To be clear, the vast majority of the shipments in 2016 will be replacements for existing smartphones, but that still speaks to the firm hold the smartphone has on the public.
Even if that forecast is too bullish, contrast it with the very, very slow growth in the PC market. "In the second quarter of 2012, the PC market suffered through its seventh consecutive quarter of flat to single-digit growth," says Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa. To be clear, that's seven straight quarters.
What's more, sales of Ultrabooks, Intel's answer to the tablet revolution, have been slow, though Otellini maintains they've met expectations -- numbers he declined to specify. Just last week, Intel told Wall Street that slower than expected PC sales will cut its revenue by $1 billion in the third quarter of the year. Sure, some of that is probably a result of PC vendors trying to lower inventory ahead of the Windows 8 launch, but that's not a good sign, to say the least.
Meanwhile, that next iteration of Windows has received a reception that varies from lukewarm to downright hostile. (Can you say "Windows Frankenstein"?) It will, of course, sell. People are still buying PCs and the software to run on them. But I have yet to meet a user who's excited by the prospect. Indeed, people I know who've purchased laptops recently say they wanted to get a good deal on a Windows 7 machine and were afraid if they waited, they'd be stuck having to buy a Windows 8 PC. (Good news: You can buy Windows 7 for at least two more years.)
Stuck -- contrast that to people who own iPhones or other smartphones and how excited they are at the prospect of buying an iPhone 5. Head down to the Apple Store near Union Square here in San Francisco when the iPhone 5 goes on sale on Sept. 21. Then go to Best Buy the day Windows 8 PCs hit the shelves and tell me that we live in a personal computing-centric world.
This article, "Apple soars as Intel bores: The post-PC world in stark contrast," was originally published by InfoWorld.com. Read more of Bill Snyder's Tech's Bottom Line blog and follow the latest technology business developments at InfoWorld.com. For the latest business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.