They can send a man to the moon (or at least they could 40 years ago). Why can't they make a tiny computer people want to buy?

Cell phone, laptop, and desktop PC markets are all well established, with dominant players in each category raking in billions in sales. But in the world of mobile computers, the field for laptops that are bigger than cell phones but smaller than regular laptops is still wide open. A shockingly large number of companies have invested millions of dollars developing products in this category. They've shipped dozens of gadgets hyped as the Next Big Thing. But the buying public has responded with indifference.

Many observers blame this indifference on problems with the category itself. What's the appeal of a mobile computer too big for your pocket and too small for a full screen and keyboard?

But I disagree. There are many scenarios -- airplanes, restaurants, meetings, around the house -- where tiny mobile computers are ideal. The problem is price, performance, and user experience. To date, products have been way too expensive, slow, clunky, and awkward to use.

Eventually, somebody is going to get it right. And when they do, the tiny computer market will get huge.

Since Microsoft announced the "Origami" project way back in March of last year, the category has been going nowhere. But suddenly, everything has changed.

Events in the past 30 days lead me to conclude something unthinkable just one month ago: Apple -- yeah, I said it: Apple! -- will ship the first ever successful small computer. Call it the Newton on Crack (or, more accurately, on Mac).

Here's what happened in September.

Palm Foleo
Everyone seems to think that Palm's Foleo project has been canceled. But this isn't true.

The original Foleo concept was a Linux-based, low-power clamshell device that worked exclusively with Palm's Treo line of smartphones.

What is true is that Palm CEO Ed Colligan announced earlier this month that the company plans to discontinue the use of Linux as an operating system. This companywide strategic change will delay the Foleo, which will come out eventually on a new OS platform the company is now working on. The new operating system will be finished next year.

So just to be clear: The Palm Foleo project has not been canceled. It has been given a new operating system and delayed.

The Foleo is still a dark horse candidate. If the company's new platform is great, if the company can survive long enough without real innovation on the phone side, if it can get the price down far enough -- a lot of "if"s here -- then Palm has a shot at selling a few of these to existing Treo owners.

The Foleo has zero chance of dominating the coming boom in tiny mobile computers.

Nokia
The Federal Communications Commission recently approved a new minitablet, nonphone device from Nokia that supports Bluetooth, WLAN, and GPS. The approval was branded "confidential," so only the sketchiest of details are available on the product, which will almost certainly ship this year.

I'm not sure Nokia has the "right stuff" to compete in the nonphone market. For starters, the company has trouble focusing on individual products and tends to scatter its energy and resources across its massive line of devices. The future king of tiny mobile computers is going to need vision and focus.

Go ahead and take Nokia off the list of contenders.

The UMPCs
The ultramobile PC (or UMPC) platform, originally developed by Microsoft, Intel, and Samsung, is designed for small, low-voltage computers with pen-based touchscreens and, optionally, QWERTY keyboards. UMPCs can run Windows XP Tablet PC Edition 2005, Windows Vista Home Premium Edition, or Linux.

Intel announced last week that it would slash the power on its UMPC chip sets in an upcoming chip set code-named Moorestown and add hot features such as WiMax, 3G, and others.

The Intel announcement is the best news to ever hit the UMPC space. The future of UMPCs has potential, but so far nobody in the space has achieved the right combination of price, performance, and overall user experience.